Skip to main content

Microtec

Menu engineering: which menu items really make money?

—

Paste your table from Excel or upload a file

The file is read on your device and never uploaded to a server.

How was this calculated?

This menu engineering calculator sorts your menu items by two questions: how much each plate earns after its ingredient cost, and how often guests order it compared with the rest of the menu. Enter units sold last month, the menu price and the plate cost for each item, and every item lands in one of four boxes (star, plowhorse, puzzle or dog) with a suggested action. Prices are read as VAT-inclusive, the way most restaurant and cafe menus in Saudi Arabia show them, and you can switch that off.

In shortAn item is a star when its contribution margin is above the weighted average margin and its share of units is above 70% of an equal share. High popularity with a low margin makes a plowhorse, the reverse a puzzle, and low on both a dog.

How the menu engineering matrix works

Michael Kasavana and Donald Smith published the method in their 1982 book on menu analysis, and it is still the best-known way restaurant managers analyse a menu. Each item gets two numbers:

CM = Price excl. VAT − Plate cost  ·  Mix % = Units ÷ Total units

Two cut-offs then come from the menu itself, one for profit and one for popularity. The profit cut-off is the weighted average contribution margin: total margin ÷ total units sold. The popularity cut-off is 70% of the share each item would have if all sold equally: on an eight-item menu the equal share is 12.5%, so the cut-off is 8.75%. The authors chose 70% because items never sell evenly, and you can change it in advanced mode if you want a stricter or looser cut-off.

Example 1, an eight-item cafe menu: 2,210 units sold and a total contribution margin of SAR 20,594.20, so the profit cut-off is SAR 9.32 a plate and the popularity cut-off 8.75%, about 193 units. The latte sells at SAR 18.00 including VAT, 15.65 before it, and costs 4.20, so its margin is 11.45 and its mix 28.05%: a star. The example is loaded by the "Example: an eight-item cafe menu" button.
Example 2, same menu: the za'atar croissant sold 300 (13.57%) but earns only SAR 5.83 a piece: a plowhorse. The mango smoothie earns 6.76 with a 2.71% mix: a dog. The menu ends up with three stars, two plowhorses, two puzzles and one dog.

Contribution margin, not food cost percentage

Contribution margin is what stays from the pre-VAT price once the ingredients are paid for, and it is what pays rent and wages. The method measures profit in riyals per plate rather than food cost percentage, because an item with a lower cost ratio can still leave fewer riyals. In the example the honey cake costs 34.5% of its pre-VAT price and the latte 26.8%, yet the cake leaves SAR 13.67 per slice against 11.45 for the latte. To cost a plate from its ingredients and see its food cost percentage, use the food cost calculator.

Stars, plowhorses, puzzles and dogs: what to do with each

ClassPopularityMarginWhat to do
StarHighHighLeave the recipe and portion alone, give it the best spot, and keep it out of discount deals.
PlowhorseHighLowCut cost with a tighter portion or a cheaper ingredient, raise the price slightly, or sell it with a higher-margin add-on.
PuzzleLowHighMove it on the menu, rewrite its description, add a photo, have the cashier suggest it, or test a slightly lower price.
DogLowLowDrop or rework it, unless it serves a group of guests or uses an ingredient other dishes need.

Analyse each menu section on its own

Setting a coffee against a main course tells you little: the main will always show the higher margin and the coffee the higher popularity. That is why the authors apply both cut-offs within each section. In advanced mode you give each item a category, the cut-offs are worked out per category, and you pick which category the matrix shows.

Example 3, the same menu split: the drinks category has six items and 1,820 units, so its popularity cut-off is 11.67%. Saudi coffee has an 11.54% share and moves from star to puzzle: its margin of SAR 16.24 is the highest among drinks, but it sells just under the cut-off. In the bakery section the croissant stays a plowhorse and the cake a puzzle.

Where the menu analysis figures come from

Units sold per item come from the POS item sales report for one period, usually a month, after taking out complimentary and refunded items. Plate cost comes from the recipe card at current supplier prices. Enter the selling price as it appears on the menu and leave "Menu prices include 15% VAT" ticked if your prices include it; the calculator divides by 1.15 first. If your items already sit in a spreadsheet, copy the columns into "Paste your table", or upload the file itself as CSV or Excel and it is read on your device.

Common menu engineering mistakes

  • Working out margin from the VAT-inclusive price, which makes every item look more profitable than it is.
  • Mixing sections in one analysis, so every drink turns into a plowhorse and every main into a puzzle.
  • Analysing Ramadan or a big promotion month on its own and then basing a whole year's decisions on it.
  • Dropping a dog that children order or regulars come in for, without looking at what it does to the rest of the order.
  • Raising a star's price because it sells well, so demand drops and the menu loses its largest source of margin.

What to do with the result

Download the matrix and table as a PDF for the meeting with your chef, or as an Excel file whose margin, mix and class formulas recalculate when you enter next month's figures. Change one thing per item, its price, position or portion, and run the analysis again a month later to see the effect. To read the whole restaurant rather than single items, work out prime cost and average check with the restaurant KPI calculator. If your delivery app prices differ, set them with the delivery app pricing calculator.

When the menu changes with every season and supplier

The analysis needs three numbers per item, and the hard part is keeping the first two right: how many actually sold, and what each plate costs today after the latest supplier price change. At Microtec we offer restaurants and cafes in the Kingdom O-Red, a cashier and POS system. Start the trial with your current menu items.

Frequently asked questions

What is menu engineering?

A menu analysis method that classes each item by its contribution margin and how often it is ordered, as a star, plowhorse, puzzle or dog. The aim is to know which items to feature, which to reprice and which to remove.

How do I calculate the contribution margin of a menu item?

Subtract the plate cost from the selling price before VAT. A latte sold at SAR 18 including 15% VAT is SAR 15.65 before it, and with a cost of SAR 4.20 its margin is SAR 11.45.

Why is the popularity cut-off 70% and not the average?

Because items never sell evenly; with the equal share itself as the cut-off, roughly half the menu would count as unpopular. Kasavana and Smith proposed 70%, and you can change it in advanced mode.

Should I remove every item that comes out as a dog?

Not always. First check whether it brings in a group of guests, such as a kids' meal, or uses an ingredient other dishes need. If it does neither, dropping it shortens the menu and the stock list.

Does menu engineering work for cafes in Saudi Arabia?

It works for cafes as well as restaurants, as long as drinks and bakery are analysed separately and the margin is taken from the price before 15% VAT, which most menus show included.

↑